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Tracking sales and sentiment in consumer products

As trends emerge and evolve in the consumer products sector, here you can follow quarterly data developments that outline year-on-year U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment movements, plus growth and contraction in income and debt levels.

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Randy Burt

Partner & Managing Director, Chicago

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Brett Meyer

Partner, Detroit

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CP Corner - Consumer Pulse Q4 2022

Consumer sentiment may have hit a low point in Q4 2022 and is now beginning to trend up, though still down 16% YOY, as the average consumer remains healthy by historical standards. However, with the debt-to-income ratio increasing, further downward pressure could be applied to consumer demand. Should future retail trade quarters continue decelerating YOY, as The Fed's measures to choke inflation take effect, profitability measures for companies will need to shift focus to the cost side as price increases become a less impactful lever. 

Consumer sentiment may have hit a low point in Q4 2022 and is now beginning to trend up, though still down 16% YOY, as the average consumer remains healthy by historical standards. However, with the debt-to-income ratio increasing, further downward pressure could be applied to consumer demand. Should future retail trade quarters continue decelerating YOY, as The Fed's measures to choke inflation take effect, profitability measures for companies will need to shift focus to the cost side as price increases become a less impactful lever. 

RETAIL TRADE FIGURES CONTINUE TO DECELERATE, AT YOY GROWTH LEVELS LAST SEEN DURING THE PANDEMIC’S EXIT

CONSUMER SENTIMENT IS TRENDING UP, BUOYED BY LOWER GAS PRICES IN ADDITION TO FALLING INFLATION. THE PREVIOUS QUARTER’S LOW MAY BE RETESTED IF THE ECONOMY TIPS INTO A RECESSION

DEBT LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE, WHILE INCOME LEVELS OFF, POTENTIALLY CONTRACTING CONSUMER DEMAND IN UPCOMING QUARTERS

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