Randy Burt
Partner & Managing Director, Chicago
As trends emerge and evolve in the Consumer Products sector, here you can follow quarterly data developments that monitor inventory turnover for U.S. Consumer Products companies, split by sector and top quartile versus all companies’ performance.
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Declining consumer demand – largely driven by pressure from rapidly rising household debt-income levels and ongoing consumer price inflation – has led to reduced manufacturing sentiment (PMI -18%), an easing in the supply chain (trucking rate -19%), and inventory turns (down YoY across all CP sectors). However, companies remain optimistic about 2023 and anticipate a solid second half, building up inventory levels across all CP sectors, despite conflicting economic signals. A strong labor market offset by rising consumer loan delinquencies; better-than-expected earnings despite lower guidance; and recent Fed hawkishness all lead to the question of whether the economy or inflation will fall faster. Will the recession that seems to be "always six months away" ever come? If prior cycles are any guide, the answer is likely yes, and companies should plan accordingly.