Q3 Transport M&A review: Trade uncertainty and weaker market fundamentals weigh down freight transport deal activity

Freight transport M&A continued to face headwinds in Q3, as trade uncertainty, delays in expected rate cuts and weaker freight market fundamentals weighed down deal momentum.

Deal volume fell 18% from Q2's already slow performance, and capital invested also fell once the mega-merger between U.S. railroad companies Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern is excluded. 

With U.S. trade policy dampening growth expectations and anticipated rate cuts pushed further out, investors are extending hold periods and taking a more cautious approach. Strategic buyers dominated activity, focusing on targeted plays rather than aggressive expansion.

The main themes emerging from this quarter’s M&A activity included:  

• Market control and consolidation to strengthen market share and pricing power
• Geographic expansion to capture growth
• Capability acquisition, especially in technology or specialised logistics
• Supply chain localisation to reduce dependency on global networks

Going forward, signs point to a steady pick-up rather than a rapid spike in M&A activity. 

As investors and executives plan with, rather than around, uncertainty, read the full report below for a deep dive into Q3 numbers, market dynamics, and actionable insights for navigating the next phase of transport M&A. 

Contact us to further explore which emerging capabilities can offer the best path to value, how to rethink the M&A pipeline, and how to strengthen your position in an uncertain economic environment.

You can also download a copy of the report here, and if you’d like to receive this report on a quarterly basis, you can subscribe via the button below.