Craig Rachel
Director, London
Insight
AlixPartners CGA Hospitality Market Monitor
This quarterly monitor (formerly Market Recovery Monitor) provides a snapshot of pub, bar and restaurant supply in Great Britain. All the data is drawn from CGA’s Outlet Index, a comprehensive, continually updated database of all licensed premises. The Hospitality Market Monitor is delivered in partnership with AlixPartners.
LATEST ISSUE: HOSPITALITY LOSES 4,600 VENUES IN 12 MONTHS, BUT CLOSURES SLOW IN EARLY 2023
Britain has suffered a net decline of 4,593 licensed premises in the last year to March 2023, the new Hospitality Market Monitor from AlixPartners and CGA by Nielsen IQ shows – but the resilience of managed groups means the rate of closures has slowed in the last quarter.
The drop is equivalent to 4.3% of the licensed sector since March 2022, and an average of 12.6 closures a day. However, net closures slowed to 756 venues in the first three months of this year – a quarter-on-quarter drop of 0.7%, and equivalent to 8.4 closures a day.
In the first three months of 2023, independent businesses contracted by 0.9%, while the managed sector grew marginally by 0.3%. Independent businesses have borne the brunt of closures with a 5.9% drop in numbers over the last 12 months, while managed groups achieved growth of 1.5%. In the three years since the start of the pandemic, the independent sector has shrunk by 14.1%—more than four times the contraction of 3.3% in the managed sector, reflecting both the vulnerability of small, mostly family-run businesses in the face of COVID and the cost-of-living crisis, as well as the resilience of better resourced pub, bar, restaurant and hotel groups.
READ THE FULL REPORTTHE HOSPITALITY MARKET MONITOR ARCHIVE
January 2023
Unprecedented inflation in energy bills and other costs led to a net decline of 1,611 licensed premises in the fourth quarter of 2022, the new Hospitality Market Monitor from AlixPartners and CGA by Nielsen IQ reveals.
October 2022
Britain’s licensed sector – the universe of pubs, bars, restaurants, cafes, and hotels – saw a net decline of one closure every hour in the third quarter of 2022, the latest Hospitality Market Monitor from AlixPartners and CGA reveals.
August 2022
Britain’s licensed sector has stabilised in the second quarter of 2022, the latest Market Recovery Monitor reveals. It shows there were just under 106,000 licensed premises at the end of June 2022 – almost exactly the same number as in both June 2021 and March 2022.
April 2022
While the latest edition of the Market Recovery Monitor shows a small decline in licensed premises in the first quarter of 2022, the sector is emerging from a tumultuous two years in better shape than some predicted, albeit 9,200 sites lighter (8%) than when the pandemic began.
January 2022
January’s Market Recovery Monitor has revealed that, despite the continued challenges faced by the hospitality industry during the Christmas period and the rise of the Omicron variant, the sector saw growth of 1.6% in Q4 2021.
October 2021
October’s Market Recovery Monitor has revealed that the hospitality industry is almost 1,000 sites lighter at the end of September than it was in July, despite full trading conditions returning over the summer.
August 2021
More than 7,000 licensed premises have not yet returned to trading following last month’s ‘Freedom Day’. While it is expected that some are still planning their restart or waiting for trading conditions to improve—especially in Scotland and Wales, where restrictions were lifted later than in England—others are unlikely to open again.
June 2021
After five weeks of limited outdoor openings, hospitality had made a steady but unspectacular return to inside service from 17 May. Three-quarters of licensed premises were back trading by the end of the month, the picture has been brightening for managed groups and big cities in particular—though trading has been modest in many places.
April 2021
Hospitality’s reopening for trade-in April has been a tale of two halves. Venues started to return from Monday 12 April to a very warm welcome from consumers, and sunny weather made for a strong first fortnight of sales—especially in drinks.
March 2021
An unremittingly tough 12 months have passed, with nearly 7,600 net closures of licensed premises witnessed across Britain since the first lockdown began in March 2020.
February 2021
A year on from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, this edition of the Market Recovery Monitor reveals its seismic impact on hospitality in 2020 and into early 2021.
January 2021
With all licensed premises closed except for takeaway and delivery in January, this edition of Market Recovery Monitor takes stock of the monumental damage wrought upon the hospitality industry by COVID-19 throughout 2020.
December 2020
The latest research from the AlixPartners and CGA Market Recovery Monitor suggests that at least a third of operators in Tier 2 could be unable to trade while subject to the latest regulations.
November 2020
A host of COVID-related government restrictions around the UK in October brought an abrupt halt to the summer’s recovery period for licensed premises.
October 2020
While four in five of Britain’s licensed premises have managed to start trading again, the increase in trading restrictions in Scotland and the likely imposition of further restrictions across other parts of the UK threatens to turn this trend into reverse.
September 2020
Just over three quarters (76.3%) of all licensed premises across Britain were open for business again by the end of August. More than 15,500 venues re-opened throughout the month—equivalent to around 500 a day—marking an increase of more than 14 percentage points since the last edition of the Market Recovery Monitor.
August 2020
Three in five (62%) of Britain’s licensed premises were back in business by the end of July following the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on 4 July. Reopening has been uneven across different segments, with pubs opening ahead of restaurants and London lagging behind the rest of England.
May 2020
As Britain’s hospitality market takes a deep breath and tentatively looks to reboot from 4 July, the scale of the toll taken by the COVID-19 crisis is still unclear, with most operators suggesting a phased approach to re-openings.
March 2020
There are mixed fortunes for Britain’s pub and restaurant industries as we move into a new decade, with December seeing the lowest rate of year-on-year decline for pubs, bars and other licensed premises since 2018, but closures continuing.
December 2019
As Britain continues to lose around seven licensed premises a day, there are small signs of a slowdown, with year-on-year decline at its lowest since June 2018. Drink-led community pubs and locals continue to bear the brunt of closures, shutting at an average of 19 a week.
August 2019
The number of licensed premises in Britain is continuing a steady year-on-year decline, with 2,920 fewer than 12 months ago. Our latest Market Growth Monitor also shows a drop in restaurant numbers and a move from the leased model of drink-led pubs. But it’s not all doom and gloom, some types of cuisine are flourishing, and emerging food trends could be good news for group restaurants.
May 2019
This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 2,753 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.3% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of approximately 53 closures per week— is the seventh successive quarter of year-on-year decline, although the pace has slowed from the 3.1% decrease as reported in last quarter’s edition.
February 2019
This quarter's review of the Market Growth Monitor shows the UK has 3,847 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.1% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—continues the trend of net closures for the fourth quarter in a row.
December 2018
This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,878 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.2% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—marks an acceleration of closures for the third quarter in a row. The 3.2% decline in the year to September 2018 follows a 1.3% fall in the year to March 2018 and a 2.5% drop in the year to June 2018.
September 2018
This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,116 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.5% decrease is the equivalent of an average eight net closures per day over the last year.
June 2018
For the first time since the launch of the Market Growth Monitor, the total number of restaurants in the UK has dropped over the last 12 months – a culmination of market conditions and competitive pressures.
April 2018
1-year and 5-year movements in site numbers over a range of industry sub-sectors and shows that although total licensed premises remained relatively flat, many restaurant brands continue to grow, despite challenging conditions.
December 2017
Britain’s number of licensed premises remained level in the year to September 2017 despite rising challenges for pub and restaurant operators.
September 2017
Dynamic new restaurant operators continue to expand and disrupt Britain’s eating out sector despite a host of challenges.
