Senior Vice President, London
This quarterly monitor provides a snapshot of pub, bar and restaurant supply in Great Britain. All the data is drawn from CGA’s Outlet Index, a comprehensive, continually updated database of all licensed premises. The Market Growth Monitor is delivered in partnership with AlixPartners.
As Britain continues to lose around seven licensed premises a day, there are small signs of a slowdown, with year-on-year decline at its lowest since June 2018. Drink-led community pubs and locals continue to bear the brunt of closures, shutting at an average of 19 a week. Our latest Market Growth Monitor (referencing data as of September 2019) also shows a continuing drop in restaurant numbers, though managed restaurant groups – whose numbers are in slight growth - are doing better than independents.
This quarter’s Market Growth Monitor also examines the trends across the major UK pub groups, which primarily show a churn of drink-led venues in favor of food-led pubs. This is against a backdrop of more than 5,500 pub closures over the last five years, or three per day.
Five key insights from our latest analysis:
The number of licensed premises in Britain is continuing a steady year-on-year decline, with 2,920 fewer than 12 months ago. Our latest Market Growth Monitor also shows a drop in restaurant numbers and a move from the leased model of drink-led pubs. But it’s not all doom and gloom, some types of cuisine are flourishing, and emerging food trends could be good news for group restaurants.
This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 2,753 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.3% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of approximately 53 closures per week— is the seventh successive quarter of year-on-year decline, although the pace has slowed from the 3.1% decrease as reported in last quarter’s edition.
This quarter's review of the Market Growth Monitor shows the UK has 3,847 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.1% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—continues the trend of net closures for the fourth quarter in a row.
This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,878 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.2% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—marks an acceleration of closures for the third quarter in a row. The 3.2% decline in the year to September 2018 follows a 1.3% fall in the year to March 2018 and a 2.5% drop in the year to June 2018.
This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,116 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.5% decrease is the equivalent of an average eight net closures per day over the last year.
For the first time since the launch of the Market Growth Monitor, the total number of restaurants in the UK has dropped over the last 12 months – a culmination of market conditions and competitive pressures.
1-year and 5-year movements in site numbers over a range of industry sub-sectors and shows that although total licensed premises remained relatively flat, many restaurant brands continue to grow, despite challenging conditions.
Britain’s number of licensed premises remained level in the year to September 2017 despite rising challenges for pub and restaurant operators.
Dynamic new restaurant operators continue to expand and disrupt Britain’s eating out sector despite a host of challenges.
Senior Vice President, London