Insight

AlixPartners CGA Market Recovery Monitor

This quarterly monitor (formerly Market Growth Monitor) provides a snapshot of pub, bar and restaurant supply in Great Britain. All the data is drawn from CGA’s Outlet Index, a comprehensive, continually updated database of all licensed premises. The Market Recovery Monitor is delivered in partnership with AlixPartners.

LATEST ISSUE: LICENSED PREMISES CLOSING AT MORE THAN ONE PER HOUR

A year on from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, this edition of the Market Recovery Monitor reveals its seismic impact on hospitality in 2020 and into early 2021.

With an average of nearly three permanent closures for every new opening and an average closure rate of 30 sites per day from the end of December 2019 to the end of January this year, it is clear that restrictions on trading in December 2020 dealt a final blow to many hospitality businesses. In January 2021 alone we have seen a permanent net closure figure of 1,749—a stark figure when compared with the 5,975 recorded in the whole of 2020.

While the sector can return for outdoor service from mid-April, this will only benefit a limited number of operators. With indoor dining and drinking not returning until mid-May at the earliest, sadly we can expect to see closures climb even higher. Government support and renewed investment will be needed to arrest this serious decline and, in time, counter the closures with new openings.

Our data reveals that just 43% of the c.26,000 licensed premises in England have outdoor areas available to take advantage of April’s potential relaxation of restrictions and resumption of outdoor-only service. However, many operators may decide that their outdoor spaces won’t generate sufficient sales to justify reopening ahead of indoor trading.

If there are any positives to be taken, they are that there is huge pent-up demand for hospitality among consumers. If the rollout of the COVID vaccine and associated reopening roadmap progress as smoothly as hoped, the industry can be cautiously optimistic that trading might approach pre-pandemic levels during the second half of 2021. Until then, it remains a question of whether businesses can secure enough support to sustain themselves through to happier times.

READ THE FULL REPORT

A year on from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, this edition of the Market Recovery Monitor reveals its seismic impact on hospitality in 2020 and into early 2021.

With an average of nearly three permanent closures for every new opening and an average closure rate of 30 sites per day from the end of December 2019 to the end of January this year, it is clear that restrictions on trading in December 2020 dealt a final blow to many hospitality businesses. In January 2021 alone we have seen a permanent net closure figure of 1,749—a stark figure when compared with the 5,975 recorded in the whole of 2020.

While the sector can return for outdoor service from mid-April, this will only benefit a limited number of operators. With indoor dining and drinking not returning until mid-May at the earliest, sadly we can expect to see closures climb even higher. Government support and renewed investment will be needed to arrest this serious decline and, in time, counter the closures with new openings.

Our data reveals that just 43% of the c.26,000 licensed premises in England have outdoor areas available to take advantage of April’s potential relaxation of restrictions and resumption of outdoor-only service. However, many operators may decide that their outdoor spaces won’t generate sufficient sales to justify reopening ahead of indoor trading.

If there are any positives to be taken, they are that there is huge pent-up demand for hospitality among consumers. If the rollout of the COVID vaccine and associated reopening roadmap progress as smoothly as hoped, the industry can be cautiously optimistic that trading might approach pre-pandemic levels during the second half of 2021. Until then, it remains a question of whether businesses can secure enough support to sustain themselves through to happier times.

READ THE FULL REPORT

THE MARKET RECOVERY MONITOR ARCHIVE

January 2021 

With all licensed premises closed except for takeaway and delivery in January, this edition of Market Recovery Monitor takes stock of the monumental damage wrought upon the hospitality industry by COVID-19 throughout 2020.

 

December 2020

The latest research from the AlixPartners and CGA Market Recovery Monitor suggests that at least a third of operators in Tier 2 could be unable to trade while subject to the latest regulations.

 

November 2020

A host of COVID-related government restrictions around the UK in October brought an abrupt halt to the summer’s recovery period for licensed premises.

 

October 2020

While four in five of Britain’s licensed premises have managed to start trading again, the increase in trading restrictions in Scotland and the likely imposition of further restrictions across other parts of the UK threatens to turn this trend into reverse.


September 2020

Just over three quarters (76.3%) of all licensed premises across Britain were open for business again by the end of August. More than 15,500 venues re-opened throughout the month—equivalent to around 500 a day—marking an increase of more than 14 percentage points since the last edition of the Market Recovery Monitor.

 

August 2020

Three in five (62%) of Britain’s licensed premises were back in business by the end of July following the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on 4 July. Reopening has been uneven across different segments, with pubs opening ahead of restaurants and London lagging behind the rest of England. 

 

May 2020

As Britain’s hospitality market takes a deep breath and tentatively looks to reboot from 4 July, the scale of the toll taken by the COVID-19 crisis is still unclear, with most operators suggesting a phased approach to re-openings.

 

March 2020

There are mixed fortunes for Britain’s pub and restaurant industries as we move into a new decade, with December seeing the lowest rate of year-on-year decline for pubs, bars and other licensed premises since 2018, but closures continuing.

 

December 2019

As Britain continues to lose around seven licensed premises a day, there are small signs of a slowdown, with year-on-year decline at its lowest since June 2018. Drink-led community pubs and locals continue to bear the brunt of closures, shutting at an average of 19 a week.

 

August 2019

The number of licensed premises in Britain is continuing a steady year-on-year decline, with 2,920 fewer than 12 months ago. Our latest Market Growth Monitor also shows a drop in restaurant numbers and a move from the leased model of drink-led pubs. But it’s not all doom and gloom, some types of cuisine are flourishing, and emerging food trends could be good news for group restaurants.

 

May 2019

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 2,753 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.3% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of approximately 53 closures per week— is the seventh successive quarter of year-on-year decline, although the pace has slowed from the 3.1% decrease as reported in last quarter’s edition.

 

February 2019

This quarter's review of the Market Growth Monitor shows the UK has 3,847 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.1% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—continues the trend of net closures for the fourth quarter in a row.

 

December 2018

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,878 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.2% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—marks an acceleration of closures for the third quarter in a row. The 3.2% decline in the year to September 2018 follows a 1.3% fall in the year to March 2018 and a 2.5% drop in the year to June 2018.

 

September 2018

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,116 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.5% decrease is the equivalent of an average eight net closures per day over the last year. 

 

June 2018

For the first time since the launch of the Market Growth Monitor, the total number of restaurants in the UK has dropped over the last 12 months – a culmination of market conditions and competitive pressures.

 

April 2018

1-year and 5-year movements in site numbers over a range of industry sub-sectors and shows that although total licensed premises remained relatively flat, many restaurant brands continue to grow, despite challenging conditions.

 

December 2017

Britain’s number of licensed premises remained level in the year to September 2017 despite rising challenges for pub and restaurant operators.

 

September 2017

Dynamic new restaurant operators continue to expand and disrupt Britain’s eating out sector despite a host of challenges.

For more information, contact: