Insight

AlixPartners CGA Market Growth Monitor

This quarterly monitor provides a snapshot of pub, bar and restaurant supply in Great Britain. All the data is drawn from CGA’s Outlet Index, a comprehensive, continually updated database of all licensed premises. The Market Growth Monitor is delivered in partnership with AlixPartners.

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Latest issue: March 2020

There are mixed fortunes for Britain’s pub and restaurant industries as we move into a new decade, with December seeing the lowest rate of year-on-year decline for pubs, bars and other licensed premises since 2018, but closures continuing.

This quarter’s Market Growth Monitor shows that despite pockets of growth, Britain’s long-term removal of unsustainable pubs and bars goes on. The pace of decline stepped up during 2019, with community and drink-led locals under the most severe strain, and there has been a 10% drop in the total number of pubs and bars since 2014. But there are signs of hope, with the pace of closures slowing and more‘drinking circuit’ bars opening in city centers.

In the restaurant market, while there were several newsworthy closures in the casual dining sector in 2019, group restaurants actually increased by 1.8% in the year to December. This was powered by openings in the country’s big regional cities.

But growth in the cities is contrasting starkly with the fortunes of the country’s seaside towns. Our latest Market Growth Monitor takes a closer look at the decline of coastal areas, where a shortage of investment and renewal strategies has left seaside towns facing significant hardships.

Five key insights from our latest analysis:

  • Number of pubs and bars down 2%
  • Restaurants in decline – but groups see 1.8% growth
  • Six licensed premises closing daily, but decline lowest since March 2018
  • High street or ‘drinking circuit’ bars see 1.3% rise year-on-year
  • Group restaurants in seaside towns see 27% increase in last five years
View the March issue

There are mixed fortunes for Britain’s pub and restaurant industries as we move into a new decade, with December seeing the lowest rate of year-on-year decline for pubs, bars and other licensed premises since 2018, but closures continuing.

This quarter’s Market Growth Monitor shows that despite pockets of growth, Britain’s long-term removal of unsustainable pubs and bars goes on. The pace of decline stepped up during 2019, with community and drink-led locals under the most severe strain, and there has been a 10% drop in the total number of pubs and bars since 2014. But there are signs of hope, with the pace of closures slowing and more‘drinking circuit’ bars opening in city centers.

In the restaurant market, while there were several newsworthy closures in the casual dining sector in 2019, group restaurants actually increased by 1.8% in the year to December. This was powered by openings in the country’s big regional cities.

But growth in the cities is contrasting starkly with the fortunes of the country’s seaside towns. Our latest Market Growth Monitor takes a closer look at the decline of coastal areas, where a shortage of investment and renewal strategies has left seaside towns facing significant hardships.

Five key insights from our latest analysis:

  • Number of pubs and bars down 2%
  • Restaurants in decline – but groups see 1.8% growth
  • Six licensed premises closing daily, but decline lowest since March 2018
  • High street or ‘drinking circuit’ bars see 1.3% rise year-on-year
  • Group restaurants in seaside towns see 27% increase in last five years
View the March issue

THE MARKET GROWTH MONITOR ARCHIVE

December 2019

As Britain continues to lose around seven licensed premises a day, there are small signs of a slowdown, with year-on-year decline at its lowest since June 2018. Drink-led community pubs and locals continue to bear the brunt of closures, shutting at an average of 19 a week.

August 2019

The number of licensed premises in Britain is continuing a steady year-on-year decline, with 2,920 fewer than 12 months ago. Our latest Market Growth Monitor also shows a drop in restaurant numbers and a move from the leased model of drink-led pubs. But it’s not all doom and gloom, some types of cuisine are flourishing, and emerging food trends could be good news for group restaurants.

May 2019

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 2,753 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.3% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of approximately 53 closures per week— is the seventh successive quarter of year-on-year decline, although the pace has slowed from the 3.1% decrease as reported in last quarter’s edition.

February 2019

This quarter's review of the Market Growth Monitor shows the UK has 3,847 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.1% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—continues the trend of net closures for the fourth quarter in a row.

December 2018

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,878 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.2% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—marks an acceleration of closures for the third quarter in a row. The 3.2% decline in the year to September 2018 follows a 1.3% fall in the year to March 2018 and a 2.5% drop in the year to June 2018.

September 2018

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,116 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.5% decrease is the equivalent of an average eight net closures per day over the last year. 

June 2018

For the first time since the launch of the Market Growth Monitor, the total number of restaurants in the UK has dropped over the last 12 months – a culmination of market conditions and competitive pressures.

April 2018

1-year and 5-year movements in site numbers over a range of industry sub-sectors and shows that although total licensed premises remained relatively flat, many restaurant brands continue to grow, despite challenging conditions.

December 2017

Britain’s number of licensed premises remained level in the year to September 2017 despite rising challenges for pub and restaurant operators.

September 2017

Dynamic new restaurant operators continue to expand and disrupt Britain’s eating out sector despite a host of challenges.

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