Insight

AlixPartners CGA Market Recovery Monitor

This quarterly monitor (formerly Market Growth Monitor) provides a snapshot of pub, bar and restaurant supply in Great Britain. All the data is drawn from CGA’s Outlet Index, a comprehensive, continually updated database of all licensed premises. The Market Recovery Monitor is delivered in partnership with AlixPartners.

Latest issue: May 2020

Hospitality prepares for tentative restart

As Britain’s hospitality market takes a deep breath and tentatively looks to reboot from 4 July, the scale of the toll taken by the COVID-19 crisis is still unclear, with most operators suggesting a phased approach to re-openings.

In the first edition of our new monthly Market Recovery Monitor, we take a close look at the numbers and types of hospitality sites that were operating in the UK before the lockdown. This will provide an important benchmark to highlight the most vulnerable sectors, and enable us to assess the state of the market as it re-opens and recovers.

We will be tracking how the UK’s eating and drinking out market recovers from the lockdown. Operators will be keen to understand the potential impact of social distancing measures on site capacity, and will be considering this in detail before firming up their re-opening plans.

Four key benchmarks from our latest analysis:

  1. 21,461 chain pubs, bars, restaurants and hotels as at March 2020—can they weather the storm?
  2. The number of chain restaurants grew by 7.6% in the year to March 2020, how many will survive post-lockdown?
  3. 74,271 independent licensed premises in the UK at March 2020—do they have the financial wherewithal to withstand an extended lockdown period?
  4. 96% of business leaders in the hospitality sector expect a phased reopening of sites—how will this play out?
READ THE MAY ISSUE

Hospitality prepares for tentative restart

As Britain’s hospitality market takes a deep breath and tentatively looks to reboot from 4 July, the scale of the toll taken by the COVID-19 crisis is still unclear, with most operators suggesting a phased approach to re-openings.

In the first edition of our new monthly Market Recovery Monitor, we take a close look at the numbers and types of hospitality sites that were operating in the UK before the lockdown. This will provide an important benchmark to highlight the most vulnerable sectors, and enable us to assess the state of the market as it re-opens and recovers.

We will be tracking how the UK’s eating and drinking out market recovers from the lockdown. Operators will be keen to understand the potential impact of social distancing measures on site capacity, and will be considering this in detail before firming up their re-opening plans.

Four key benchmarks from our latest analysis:

  1. 21,461 chain pubs, bars, restaurants and hotels as at March 2020—can they weather the storm?
  2. The number of chain restaurants grew by 7.6% in the year to March 2020, how many will survive post-lockdown?
  3. 74,271 independent licensed premises in the UK at March 2020—do they have the financial wherewithal to withstand an extended lockdown period?
  4. 96% of business leaders in the hospitality sector expect a phased reopening of sites—how will this play out?
READ THE MAY ISSUE

THE MARKET RECOVERY MONITOR ARCHIVE

March 2020

There are mixed fortunes for Britain’s pub and restaurant industries as we move into a new decade, with December seeing the lowest rate of year-on-year decline for pubs, bars and other licensed premises since 2018, but closures continuing.

December 2019

As Britain continues to lose around seven licensed premises a day, there are small signs of a slowdown, with year-on-year decline at its lowest since June 2018. Drink-led community pubs and locals continue to bear the brunt of closures, shutting at an average of 19 a week.

August 2019

The number of licensed premises in Britain is continuing a steady year-on-year decline, with 2,920 fewer than 12 months ago. Our latest Market Growth Monitor also shows a drop in restaurant numbers and a move from the leased model of drink-led pubs. But it’s not all doom and gloom, some types of cuisine are flourishing, and emerging food trends could be good news for group restaurants.

May 2019

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 2,753 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.3% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of approximately 53 closures per week— is the seventh successive quarter of year-on-year decline, although the pace has slowed from the 3.1% decrease as reported in last quarter’s edition.

February 2019

This quarter's review of the Market Growth Monitor shows the UK has 3,847 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.1% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—continues the trend of net closures for the fourth quarter in a row.

December 2018

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,878 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.2% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—marks an acceleration of closures for the third quarter in a row. The 3.2% decline in the year to September 2018 follows a 1.3% fall in the year to March 2018 and a 2.5% drop in the year to June 2018.

September 2018

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,116 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.5% decrease is the equivalent of an average eight net closures per day over the last year. 

June 2018

For the first time since the launch of the Market Growth Monitor, the total number of restaurants in the UK has dropped over the last 12 months – a culmination of market conditions and competitive pressures.

April 2018

1-year and 5-year movements in site numbers over a range of industry sub-sectors and shows that although total licensed premises remained relatively flat, many restaurant brands continue to grow, despite challenging conditions.

December 2017

Britain’s number of licensed premises remained level in the year to September 2017 despite rising challenges for pub and restaurant operators.

September 2017

Dynamic new restaurant operators continue to expand and disrupt Britain’s eating out sector despite a host of challenges.

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