Insight

AlixPartners CGA Market Recovery Monitor

This quarterly monitor (formerly Market Growth Monitor) provides a snapshot of pub, bar and restaurant supply in Great Britain. All the data is drawn from CGA’s Outlet Index, a comprehensive, continually updated database of all licensed premises. The Market Recovery Monitor is delivered in partnership with AlixPartners.

LATEST ISSUE: Omicron threatens hospitality’s fragile recovery, as venue numbers grow in Q4 2021

January’s Market Recovery Monitor has revealed that, despite the continued challenges faced by the hospitality industry during the Christmas period and the rise of the Omicron variant, the sector saw growth of 1.6% in Q4 2021.

Three months on from our last report, the total number of licensed premises has risen by 1,672 to 106,880. This data encompasses modest net growth in numbers across all areas of the market, though it has been slightly higher in food-led segments such as casual dining rather than in pubs. Some of the most striking growth has been seen in bars and nightclubs, thanks to the return of the late-night market during the final quarter of the year after well over a year of restrictions.

However, these positive short-term trends cannot disguise the scars that COVID-19 has left on hospitality. Since the effects of the pandemic began to be felt in March 2020, there has been a net decline in numbers of 8,228 sites - equivalent to a net drop of around 13 venues every day. The number of casual dining restaurants is now 17.3% lower than in March 2020, while other restaurants have dropped by 10.1% and nightclubs by 17.0%.

Despite fourth-quarter growth, the future of more hospitality businesses is now under continued threat after a serious dent in sales was inflicted over the Christmas and New Year period. As concerns about the Omicron variant spread, more than 16,000 sites in Scotland and Wales - equivalent to 15% of the GB licensed market – were impacted by the restrictions introduced.

The sector also faces a host of operational pressures in 2022, including rapidly rising food and energy costs, staff shortages and supply problems. It threatens hospitality’s recovery just as it was gathering momentum and highlights the need for further government support. Emergency grants have been welcome, but more assistance on tax and costs is going to be needed. Hospitality is ready to power Britain’s post-COVID economy, but only if it can secure the support required for the months ahead.

READ THE FULL REPORT

January’s Market Recovery Monitor has revealed that, despite the continued challenges faced by the hospitality industry during the Christmas period and the rise of the Omicron variant, the sector saw growth of 1.6% in Q4 2021.

Three months on from our last report, the total number of licensed premises has risen by 1,672 to 106,880. This data encompasses modest net growth in numbers across all areas of the market, though it has been slightly higher in food-led segments such as casual dining rather than in pubs. Some of the most striking growth has been seen in bars and nightclubs, thanks to the return of the late-night market during the final quarter of the year after well over a year of restrictions.

However, these positive short-term trends cannot disguise the scars that COVID-19 has left on hospitality. Since the effects of the pandemic began to be felt in March 2020, there has been a net decline in numbers of 8,228 sites - equivalent to a net drop of around 13 venues every day. The number of casual dining restaurants is now 17.3% lower than in March 2020, while other restaurants have dropped by 10.1% and nightclubs by 17.0%.

Despite fourth-quarter growth, the future of more hospitality businesses is now under continued threat after a serious dent in sales was inflicted over the Christmas and New Year period. As concerns about the Omicron variant spread, more than 16,000 sites in Scotland and Wales - equivalent to 15% of the GB licensed market – were impacted by the restrictions introduced.

The sector also faces a host of operational pressures in 2022, including rapidly rising food and energy costs, staff shortages and supply problems. It threatens hospitality’s recovery just as it was gathering momentum and highlights the need for further government support. Emergency grants have been welcome, but more assistance on tax and costs is going to be needed. Hospitality is ready to power Britain’s post-COVID economy, but only if it can secure the support required for the months ahead.

READ THE FULL REPORT

THE MARKET RECOVERY MONITOR ARCHIVE

October 2021 

October’s Market Recovery Monitor has revealed that the hospitality industry is almost 1,000 sites lighter at the end of September than it was in July, despite full trading conditions returning over the summer.  

 

August 2021 

More than 7,000 licensed premises have not yet returned to trading following last month’s ‘Freedom Day’. While it is expected that some are still planning their restart or waiting for trading conditions to improve—especially in Scotland and Wales, where restrictions were lifted later than in England—others are unlikely to open again.

 

June 2021 

After five weeks of limited outdoor openings, hospitality had made a steady but unspectacular return to inside service from 17 May. Three-quarters of licensed premises were back trading by the end of the month, the picture has been brightening for managed groups and big cities in particular—though trading has been modest in many places.

 

April 2021

Hospitality’s reopening for trade-in April has been a tale of two halves. Venues started to return from Monday 12 April to a very warm welcome from consumers, and sunny weather made for a strong first fortnight of sales—especially in drinks.

 

March 2021 

An unremittingly tough 12 months have passed, with nearly 7,600 net closures of licensed premises witnessed across Britain since the first lockdown began in March 2020.

 

February 2021 

A year on from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, this edition of the Market Recovery Monitor reveals its seismic impact on hospitality in 2020 and into early 2021.

 

January 2021 

With all licensed premises closed except for takeaway and delivery in January, this edition of Market Recovery Monitor takes stock of the monumental damage wrought upon the hospitality industry by COVID-19 throughout 2020.

 

December 2020

The latest research from the AlixPartners and CGA Market Recovery Monitor suggests that at least a third of operators in Tier 2 could be unable to trade while subject to the latest regulations.

 

November 2020

A host of COVID-related government restrictions around the UK in October brought an abrupt halt to the summer’s recovery period for licensed premises.

 

October 2020

While four in five of Britain’s licensed premises have managed to start trading again, the increase in trading restrictions in Scotland and the likely imposition of further restrictions across other parts of the UK threatens to turn this trend into reverse.


September 2020

Just over three quarters (76.3%) of all licensed premises across Britain were open for business again by the end of August. More than 15,500 venues re-opened throughout the month—equivalent to around 500 a day—marking an increase of more than 14 percentage points since the last edition of the Market Recovery Monitor.

 

August 2020

Three in five (62%) of Britain’s licensed premises were back in business by the end of July following the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on 4 July. Reopening has been uneven across different segments, with pubs opening ahead of restaurants and London lagging behind the rest of England. 

 

May 2020

As Britain’s hospitality market takes a deep breath and tentatively looks to reboot from 4 July, the scale of the toll taken by the COVID-19 crisis is still unclear, with most operators suggesting a phased approach to re-openings.

 

March 2020

There are mixed fortunes for Britain’s pub and restaurant industries as we move into a new decade, with December seeing the lowest rate of year-on-year decline for pubs, bars and other licensed premises since 2018, but closures continuing.

 

December 2019

As Britain continues to lose around seven licensed premises a day, there are small signs of a slowdown, with year-on-year decline at its lowest since June 2018. Drink-led community pubs and locals continue to bear the brunt of closures, shutting at an average of 19 a week.

 

August 2019

The number of licensed premises in Britain is continuing a steady year-on-year decline, with 2,920 fewer than 12 months ago. Our latest Market Growth Monitor also shows a drop in restaurant numbers and a move from the leased model of drink-led pubs. But it’s not all doom and gloom, some types of cuisine are flourishing, and emerging food trends could be good news for group restaurants.

 

May 2019

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 2,753 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.3% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of approximately 53 closures per week— is the seventh successive quarter of year-on-year decline, although the pace has slowed from the 3.1% decrease as reported in last quarter’s edition.

 

February 2019

This quarter's review of the Market Growth Monitor shows the UK has 3,847 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.1% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—continues the trend of net closures for the fourth quarter in a row.

 

December 2018

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,878 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.2% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—marks an acceleration of closures for the third quarter in a row. The 3.2% decline in the year to September 2018 follows a 1.3% fall in the year to March 2018 and a 2.5% drop in the year to June 2018.

 

September 2018

This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,116 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.5% decrease is the equivalent of an average eight net closures per day over the last year. 

 

June 2018

For the first time since the launch of the Market Growth Monitor, the total number of restaurants in the UK has dropped over the last 12 months – a culmination of market conditions and competitive pressures.

 

April 2018

1-year and 5-year movements in site numbers over a range of industry sub-sectors and shows that although total licensed premises remained relatively flat, many restaurant brands continue to grow, despite challenging conditions.

 

December 2017

Britain’s number of licensed premises remained level in the year to September 2017 despite rising challenges for pub and restaurant operators.

 

September 2017

Dynamic new restaurant operators continue to expand and disrupt Britain’s eating out sector despite a host of challenges.

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