This quarterly monitor (formerly Market Growth Monitor) provides a snapshot of pub, bar and restaurant supply in Great Britain. All the data is drawn from CGA’s Outlet Index, a comprehensive, continually updated database of all licensed premises. The Market Recovery Monitor is delivered in partnership with AlixPartners.
After five weeks of limited outdoor openings, hospitality had made a steady but unspectacular return to inside service from 17 May. Three quarters of licensed premises were back trading by the end of the month, and as we see in this edition of our Market Recovery Monitor, the picture has been brightening for managed groups and big cities in particular - though trading has been modest in many places.
However, just over 25,000 sites remain closed, and the postponement of hospitality’s full return in England until 19 July throws the future of beleaguered operations into doubt. In addition to the fierce headwinds whipped up by mounting debt, recruitment problems, rising input costs and much more, operators now face four more weeks of severely curtailed trading - or, in thousands of cases, no trading at all.
It remains to be seen how many of these closures are temporary and how many are permanent, but constraining service for a further four weeks has shifted the balance towards the latter. The late-night sector has been particularly hard hit by enforced COVID restrictions, and one in eight (12.3%) nightclubs have already been lost since March 2020. The postponement of clubs’ reopening in England is likely to add significantly to that tally. Casual dining site numbers have also fallen by more than 20% since pre-pandemic.
Even the venues that have been able to open have reported underwhelming sales, and CGA data shows that managed groups’ total sales in May were down by 26% on May 2019. Trading may have restarted, but it is still far off pre-COVID levels.
While the rent moratorium may have been extended into next year, the planned withdrawal of other government support for these businesses, including furloughing, rates cancellations, and tax cuts puts the whole sector’s recovery in jeopardy. Britain already has nearly 10,000 fewer licensed premises than it did before the pandemic, and fresh, sustained support is going to be needed if many more fragile businesses are to make it through.
Hospitality’s reopening for trade-in April has been a tale of two halves. Venues started to return from Monday 12 April to a very warm welcome from consumers, and sunny weather made for a strong first fortnight of sales—especially in drinks.
An unremittingly tough 12 months have passed, with nearly 7,600 net closures of licensed premises witnessed across Britain since the first lockdown began in March 2020.
A year on from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, this edition of the Market Recovery Monitor reveals its seismic impact on hospitality in 2020 and into early 2021.
With all licensed premises closed except for takeaway and delivery in January, this edition of Market Recovery Monitor takes stock of the monumental damage wrought upon the hospitality industry by COVID-19 throughout 2020.
The latest research from the AlixPartners and CGA Market Recovery Monitor suggests that at least a third of operators in Tier 2 could be unable to trade while subject to the latest regulations.
A host of COVID-related government restrictions around the UK in October brought an abrupt halt to the summer’s recovery period for licensed premises.
While four in five of Britain’s licensed premises have managed to start trading again, the increase in trading restrictions in Scotland and the likely imposition of further restrictions across other parts of the UK threatens to turn this trend into reverse.
Just over three quarters (76.3%) of all licensed premises across Britain were open for business again by the end of August. More than 15,500 venues re-opened throughout the month—equivalent to around 500 a day—marking an increase of more than 14 percentage points since the last edition of the Market Recovery Monitor.
Three in five (62%) of Britain’s licensed premises were back in business by the end of July following the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on 4 July. Reopening has been uneven across different segments, with pubs opening ahead of restaurants and London lagging behind the rest of England.
As Britain’s hospitality market takes a deep breath and tentatively looks to reboot from 4 July, the scale of the toll taken by the COVID-19 crisis is still unclear, with most operators suggesting a phased approach to re-openings.
There are mixed fortunes for Britain’s pub and restaurant industries as we move into a new decade, with December seeing the lowest rate of year-on-year decline for pubs, bars and other licensed premises since 2018, but closures continuing.
As Britain continues to lose around seven licensed premises a day, there are small signs of a slowdown, with year-on-year decline at its lowest since June 2018. Drink-led community pubs and locals continue to bear the brunt of closures, shutting at an average of 19 a week.
The number of licensed premises in Britain is continuing a steady year-on-year decline, with 2,920 fewer than 12 months ago. Our latest Market Growth Monitor also shows a drop in restaurant numbers and a move from the leased model of drink-led pubs. But it’s not all doom and gloom, some types of cuisine are flourishing, and emerging food trends could be good news for group restaurants.
This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 2,753 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.3% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of approximately 53 closures per week— is the seventh successive quarter of year-on-year decline, although the pace has slowed from the 3.1% decrease as reported in last quarter’s edition.
This quarter's review of the Market Growth Monitor shows the UK has 3,847 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.1% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—continues the trend of net closures for the fourth quarter in a row.
This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,878 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 3.2% decrease over the last year—the equivalent of more than 10 net closures per day—marks an acceleration of closures for the third quarter in a row. The 3.2% decline in the year to September 2018 follows a 1.3% fall in the year to March 2018 and a 2.5% drop in the year to June 2018.
This quarter's Market Growth Monitor shows that the UK has 3,116 fewer pubs, bars, restaurants and other licenced premises than 12 months ago. The 2.5% decrease is the equivalent of an average eight net closures per day over the last year.
For the first time since the launch of the Market Growth Monitor, the total number of restaurants in the UK has dropped over the last 12 months – a culmination of market conditions and competitive pressures.
1-year and 5-year movements in site numbers over a range of industry sub-sectors and shows that although total licensed premises remained relatively flat, many restaurant brands continue to grow, despite challenging conditions.
Britain’s number of licensed premises remained level in the year to September 2017 despite rising challenges for pub and restaurant operators.
Dynamic new restaurant operators continue to expand and disrupt Britain’s eating out sector despite a host of challenges.