Partner & Managing Director, Detroit
First-of-its-kind measure computes total ‘e-range’ of vehicles sold and ‘e-share’ of companies and countries
Detroit (Sept. 6, 2017) – AlixPartners, the global business-advisory firm, today unveiled a new index designed to give the automotive industry and those with an interest in the industry, including governments around the world, a more meaningful tool than heretofore existed for measuring the progress of companies and countries in the march toward the electrification of cars and light trucks.
Unlike other indices, the AlixPartners Automotive-Electrification Index tracks not just the number of “e”-vehicles sold by automakers—including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs)—but importantly it measures the combined range of these vehicles, what the analysis calls the “e-range”; this combined range as a percentage of the total ranges of all cars and trucks of all kinds sold by individual automakers—a company’s “e-share”; and the combined e-ranges and e-shares both by country (61 so far) and by major regions of the world. The AlixPartners analysis takes a quarterly look at these measures, starting with the first quarter of 2013 and, overall, allows for direct, head-to-head comparisons of true vehicle-electrification progress between and among automakers, countries and regions of the world.
Automaker rankings: a strong Chinese showing
Not surprisingly, according to our analysis, small, all-electric, US-based automaker Tesla Inc. is by far the top-ranking manufacturer in the auto-company measures, with sales in the second quarter of 2017 (the most recent quarter measured in the Index) totalling 6.6 million miles’ (10.6 million kilometers’) worth of e-range and with a fleet e-share of 100%. Of note, though, the top 10 automakers by e-range sold in the second quarter includes no fewer than five Chinese companies: BYD Auto Co. Ltd., BAIC Motor Corp. Ltd., Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd. (Geely), Ninghai Zhidou Electric Vehicles Co. (Zhidou) and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co. Ltd. (Jianghuai).
Meanwhile, some big European, US, Japanese and Korean manufacturers also did well in the e-range ranking: The Renault-Nissan alliance (Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co.) ranks second, with 3.73 million miles’ (6.0 million kilometers’) worth of e-range sold in the second quarter; General Motors Co. is fifth, at 1.64 million miles’ (2.64 million kilometers’) worth sold; Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) is seventh, at 1.26 million miles’ (2.03 million kilometers’) worth sold; Hyundai Motor Co. is tenth, at 1.14 million miles’ (1.84 million kilometers’) worth sold; Volkswagen AG is eleventh, at 1.05 million miles’ (1.69 million kilometers’) worth sold; and Toyota Motor Corp. is twelfth, at 0.76 million miles’ (1.23 million kilometers’) worth sold. (Note: The standard Toyota Prius and other non-plug-in hybrids (HEVs) are not included in the AlixPartners Electrification Index, as they derive all their power from carbon-based fuels, not external electrical power.)
The other US-centric automakers, among 32 companies in total in the AlixPartners Electrification Index, fared as follows: Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA), with 200,000 miles’ (320,000 kilometers’) worth of e-range sold in the second quarter of this year; and Ford Motor Co., with 150,000 miles’ (240,000 kilometers’) worth.
Region rankings: China has gone from the bottom to top
In terms of vehicle electrification by regions of the world, China also does well in the AlixPartners analysis. In the first quarter of 2013, Greater China (including Taiwan and Hong Kong) placed dead last among all regions globally in combined e-range sold there, at 224,000 miles’ (360,000 kilometers’) worth. However, in the second quarter of this year, Greater China saw sales of vehicles with a combined e-range of 14.0 million miles’ (22.5 million kilometers’) worth. In comparison, Europe saw only just over half that figure, 7.8 million miles’ (12.6 million kilometers’) worth; North America saw 6.1 million miles’ (9.9 million kilometers’) worth; and Japan/Korea saw 1.3 million miles’ (2.1 million kilometers’) worth.
The order is the same for e-shares by region, although the differences between the regions are not quite as great. The e-share among all light vehicles sold for the second quarter of this year in Greater China was 0.70%, according to the AlixPartners analysis, compared with 0.46% for Europe, 0.37% for North America and 0.25% for Japan/Korea. Of note: In the first quarter of 2013, the e-share within Greater China stood at just 0.01%, according to the analysis.
Country rankings: small European nations in top spots
When it comes to individual countries, however, the AlixPartners index indicates that some nations around the world are ahead of China when it comes to e-share—i.e., electric vehicles as a percentage of all types of vehicles sold locally. The first six places in those rankings for this year’s second quarter were taken by Norway, Iceland, the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Switzerland, respectively—all fairly small European countries with relatively high per-capita purchasing power. Norway’s sky-high 11.86% e-share dwarfs that of all other countries in the analysis, including that of the People Republic of China (0.71%, placing that country ninth in ranking); the US (0.41%, for nineteenth); and Germany (0.39%, for twentieth).
From a worldwide point of view, the AlixPartners report also notes that the combined range of all electric vehicles sold globally has gone up by a factor of more than six from the first quarter of 2013 through the second quarter of this year, to 29.5 million miles’ (47.5 million kilometers’) worth, from 4.5 million miles’ (7.3 million kilometers’).
Mark Wakefield, global co-head of the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners, said: “Our new index is intended to be a useful, unbiased and real-world tool for tracking vehicle electrification, which, while still in its infancy, will in all likelihood be one of the foundational building blocks of future mobility. This index allows ‘apples-to-apples’ comparisons of progress, and shows that despite the recent drop in oil prices, the world is marching towards more electrified vehicles even though they have yet to hit an inflection point with the global e-share at 0.4% of all passenger vehicles sold in the second quarter of 2017.
“By the same token, also meaningful are the findings in the index showing that both automakers and countries today are at risk of falling behind the Chinese in vehicle electrification, who have moved from last to first in less than a five-year vehicle-development cycle. Plus, they’re not standing still.”
About the Index
The AlixPartners Automotive-Electrification Index measures electrification in the global automotive industry, using these analyses:
For the purposes of this index “electric vehicles” comprises the following vehicle types: plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs). Hybrid vehicles with no plug-in option are excluded, based on fact that such vehicles are only partially electric, receiving assistance from an internal-combustion engine.
All AlixPartners analyses are based on publicly available data, including that available from IHS Markit Ltd., EV-volumes.com, automakers’ and governmental public websites, and range validation from automakers.
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