Middle East Emerges as Key Growth Market for Chinese Auto Exports Amidst Global Shifts, Says AlixPartners Report

Dubai, United Arab Emirates (April 30, 2025)  -- The Middle East and Russia have emerged as pivotal markets for China’s automotive exports, surpassing North America and Europe in volume for the first time, according to a new report released today by AlixPartners, the global consulting firm. This shift comes as China continues to flex its muscles in the global automotive-export market, even amid the ongoing global tariff storm gripping the industry.

The AlixPartners report notes that China’s exports soared 23%, to 6.4 million passenger vehicles, in 2024—more than 50% above second-ranked Japan—though the report expects growth to moderate to 4% in 2025 as tariffs ripple through the market.

Russia and the Middle East together accounted for 35% of China-origin vehicle exports in 2024, surpassing the combined shipments to Europe and North America for the first time. “China’s car sales to Russia and Belarus have more than doubled over the past five years, insulating it in part from the volatility of tariffs,” said Andrew Bergbaum, Global Leader of the Automotive and Industrial Practice at AlixPartners.

“Chinese car manufacturers are rapidly gaining traction in the Middle East, positioning the region as a critical growth engine for their global exports” said Alessandro Missaglia, Partner & Managing Director at AlixPartners, “Customers appreciate the competitive pricing and high technology content of Chinese vehicles. These brands are steadily gaining ground on established players, a trend expected to accelerate with the gradual shift toward electric vehicles (EVs).”

The AlixPartners report forecasts Chinese brands will account for 30% of the global automotive market by 2030, up from 21% in 2024 with big gains in emerging markets.

In the Middle East and Africa, Chinese brands are forecasted to achieve 34% market share by 2030, a remarkable jump from just 10% in 2024. This makes it the region with the highest share of Chinese vehicles outside of China and Russia & Belarus.

While countries continue to impose tariffs on China-brand vehicles, the impact remains muted. According to the AlixPartners report, although recent tariffs from the U.S. and other countries will increase the cost of China’s vehicle and auto components exports by about 24%, or $46 billion, this represents only about 3.8% of China’s total auto-industry production value.

Growing export sales have been accompanied by continuing growth in the domestic China market, which the report forecasts will grow by 4%, to 26.8 million vehicles, in 2025, in sharp contrast to declines in other major markets.

Domestic growth in China is being driven by rapid adoption of electric vehicles, increasingly with intelligent-vehicle features such as autonomous-driving systems, says the report. Electric vehicle
sales are forecast to account for 54% of the domestic market in 2025, says the report, released on the eve of the big auto show in Shanghai.

The domestic boom in China’s electric- and intelligent-vehicle sales has changed the trajectory of the price war that started in 2023, with financial incentives and new features increasingly replacing discounts on retail prices, says the report.

ADAS L2 and above features were included on almost 60% of passenger-vehicle sales in China last year, compared with fewer than 40% in the U.S., according to the report. And penetration of these types of features is set to increase ahead of other regions, according to the report’s survey of automotive executives—which included 100 executives in the U.S., 100 in China and 200 in Europe and the United Kingdom.

Crucially, two-thirds of the executives surveyed identified China as leading in intelligent-driving systems—systems that would be difficult to replicate in other markets, according to the report. These include the collection and processing of data, and the availability of software and machine-learning talent.

As Chinese automakers continue to advance in intelligent-driving technologies and electric vehicles, the Middle East is set to play an increasingly strategic role in their global growth ambitions. The region’s appetite for innovation, coupled with its investments in future mobility and sustainability, positions it as a key destination for next-generation automotive solutions. According to AlixPartners, the growing alignment between Chinese brands' offerings and Middle Eastern market needs is expected to drive deeper partnerships, technology adoption, and competitive intensity across the automotive landscape in the coming years.

About AlixPartners
AlixPartners is a results-driven, global consulting firm that specializes in helping businesses successfully address their most complex and critical challenges. Our clients include companies, corporate boards, law firms, investment banks, private equity firms, and others. Founded in 1981, AlixPartners is headquartered in New York, and has offices in more than 20 cities around the world. For more information, visit www.alixpartners.com.