People
Marc Iampieri
Global Co-Leader Logistics & Transportation, Partner & Managing Director
New York
Surcharge-driven pricing and geopolitical disruption are intensifying supply side freight inflation, with tightening capacity in trucking and air and carrier-controlled ocean rates pushing costs higher despite still-muted demand.
Key themes highlighted in this month’s update include:
- Global / macro: Logistics costs have reached their highest levels since April 2022 as transport prices surge and capacity collapses, marking one of the widest supply-demand imbalances in recent history and signaling a renewed phase of supply-driven inflation.
- Ocean & air freight: Rate increases are being driven by carriers and disruptions, not demand-led, with ocean pricing recovering on surcharges and capacity discipline while air freight rates jump sharply (~30% YoY) due to fuel costs and Middle East-related capacity disruptions.
- U.S. trucking: Reduction in capacity is increasing rates and compressing the contract-spot spread, in addition to the significant pressure of fuel prices on rates.
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