Supply Chain Market Update: Peak-season pull-forward and capacity constraints push rates higher

Freight markets are tightening across the board, and this time demand is part of the story. As retailers pull inventory forward ahead of peak season, rates are climbing on ocean, truck, air, and rail at once, with capacity constraints amplifying the pressure. This month's update examines how peak-season front-loading and a genuine squeeze on capacity are lifting costs across modes, and what the shift means for shippers heading into Q3.

Click here to access the full July Supply Chain Market Update

Key themes highlighted in this month's update include:

• Ocean freight rates surged into July as retailers front-load inventory ahead of peak season, with Transpacific capacity additions offset by blank sailings and continued network disruptions that are keeping rates elevated
• Truckload spot rates moved above contract rates for the first time since 2022, driven by capacity reductions, carrier exits, regulatory pressure, and ongoing driver shortages rather than a broad jump in freight demand
• Air freight rates remain near multi-year highs, up 38% year over year, as strong AI and semiconductor demand continues to outpace capacity growth
• Rail volumes keep strengthening, with intermodal benefiting from constrained trucking capacity and offering a lower-cost alternative into the Q3 peak

View the report in full below, or click to download here. Reach out to our experts for more.