Supply Chain Market Update: Transpacific ocean holds near peak as record diesel and record rail intermodal define August

Freight markets are splitting apart even as costs stay high. Transpacific ocean rates are holding near peak-season levels on carrier pricing power while Asia-Europe lanes fall, trucking has swung from a spot-led to a contract-led market, and record diesel is resetting the cost floor across modes. This month’s update examines how carrier capacity management, a record diesel spike, and a record-setting rail intermodal market are shaping conditions into the Q4 peak, and where the divergence between lanes and modes is opening up.

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Key themes highlighted in this month's update include:

• Transpacific ocean rates keep climbing on carrier pricing power and capacity management rather than demand, with Shanghai–Los Angeles hitting $7,352 per 40-foot container by mid-September as blank sailings and typhoon congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo hold effective capacity below nominal levels.
• Global air freight rates eased 2% month-over-month to $3.13/kg but remain 24% above last year, as AI-chip demand keeps Asia–U.S. load factors near 90% even as jet fuel costs climb 57% year-over-year.
• North American trucking has returned from a spot to a contract market: linehaul rates rose 11.3% year-over-year in August, a 20th straight monthly gain, while record diesel at $6.285 per gallon and tightening driver availability keep the cost floor high despite some early signs of capacity recovery.
• Rail intermodal set an all-time monthly record in August, up 4.4% year-over-year for a seventh straight gain, as shippers lean on rail's roughly 70% fuel-efficiency edge and a 38% cost advantage vs. over-the-road.
• European FTL spot rates rose 9% year-over-year, with Germany running far hotter at 21%, as low Rhine water levels near Kaub push bulk volume onto trucks and roughly 502,000 unfilled driver posts keep capacity structurally tight.