The era of hyper-volatility: Cost Inflation Outlook, October 2026

The post-2021 inflation era was highly disruptive, but it at least had a discernable shape. In 2026, forces across geopolitics, supply chains, climate, and tech have given way to a new normal of hyper-volatility, with commodity prices undergoing extreme and unpredictable two-way shifts. As business leaders look to get ahead of the next shock, procurement functions are moving from an efficiency-first to agility-first operating posture. 

Our Cost Inflation Outlook, built using insights from our data partners Expana and Green Cabbage, finds cost movements becoming increasingly divergent across categories, while AI hits reset on the indirect cost landscape, driving inflation in infrastructure while unlocking opportunities in services. We examine the forces driving this shift, and how leaders are repositioning procurement for resilience in a new era of uncertainty.  

Read the full report below, or download a copy here.