Ageing Jets Transform Aerospace Industry Economics
Lessors and engine makers dominate profitability as production and delivery delays strain airline planners, says AlixPartners’ study
NEW YORK (June 2, 2025) – The global commercial jetliner fleet is on track by 2030 to be the oldest in two decades as delivery delays reshape the profitability of the aerospace industry and push sustainability targets to the right. Engine makers, aircraft lessors and maintenance shops have been the main beneficiaries of the supply chain disruptions, material and labor shortages and certification delays that have left airlines scrambling for capacity. Delivering the record backlog of more than 16,000 commercial jets and meeting rapidly changing requirements for defense and space demands a broad reset of the industry value chain, according to AlixPartners’ 2025 Aerospace & Defense Outlook.
Key highlights include:
- Engine makers and lessors generated more than 90% of industry profits in 2024
- Average fleet age is on track to rise to 11.5 years by 2030
- Order backlogs stretch to 13 years for narrowbodies and 15 years for widebodies
- Aircraft emissions could rise 30% by 2034, putting net zero targets at risk
- Intertwined supply chains pressured by the $2.6 trillion global military budget
Global airline traffic last year surpassed the level in 2019 but aircraft deliveries remained 30% below their pre-pandemic peak. Well-documented delivery delays have pushed back aircraft retirements and spurred lease extensions, repairs and upgrades.
“Engine makers and lessors are the new gatekeepers of capacity and profits in the aerospace industry,” said Eric Bernardini, managing director of AlixPartners’ global aerospace and defense practice.
Aircraft lessors account for half the global in-service fleet and generated 49% of the aerospace industry’s operating profit in 2024, more than doubling their share over the past decade. The aging fleet and continued operational challenges with new-generation engines have boosted overhaul work on existing power plants.
The widespread disruption that has slowed output will lengthen lead times and push delivery of aircraft ordered today into the late 2030s without a reset of the aircraft production and overhaul ecosystem.
Efforts to improve efficiency with technology such as AI-enabled manufacturing and maintenance monitoring are also impacted by geopolitical events, notably trade policy.
“The volatile tariff environment coincides with a shift in global MRO capacity to Asia and the Middle East,” said Stefan Ohl, global co-lead of the aerospace and defense team.
Airbus, Boeing and the rest of the aerospace and defense value chain face an unprecedented array of challenges. Operating models are already being reshaped in sectors including aerostructures and satellite and munitions production.
The entwinement of aerospace supply chains is exacerbated by rising military budgets and efforts to enable more commercial technologies for defense. Tackling quality and sustainment challenges is crucial to freeing up resources and reaching production goals.
“The aftermarket is increasingly becoming a strategic battleground to support production ramp-ups,” said David Wireman, co-leader of the aerospace and defense practice. AlixPartners’ client engagements provide a unique insight into tackling the challenges facing the global aerospace and defense industry.
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About AlixPartners
AlixPartners is a results-driven global consulting firm that specializes in helping businesses successfully address their most complex and critical challenges. Our clients include companies, corporate boards, law firms, investment banks, private equity firms, and others. Founded in 1981, AlixPartners is headquartered in New York and has offices in more than 20 cities around the world. For more information, visit www.alixpartners.com.