In today's fast-paced, data-driven world, precision in forecasting is crucial for maintaining a competitive edge in business. Improved forecasting techniques can drive significant gains in accuracy and decision-making, leading to increased business value for your company.
Forecasting isn’t just about predicting the future—it’s about preparing for it. Whether you're navigating market volatility, optimizing supply chains, or planning strategic growth, better forecasts empower you to:
- Improve decision-making: Reduce guesswork and base your strategies on forecasted volatility through data-backed insights
- Mitigate Risk: Identify potential disruptions before they happen and build resilience
- Seize Opportunities: Spot emerging trends and seasonal patterns that enable you to act with agility and get ahead of the competition
- Drive Efficiency: Optimize resource allocation and streamline operations
A case in point – greater forecasting accuracy drives improved investment thesis
An investment firm managing a $1B+ restaurant loan portfolio needed sharper revenue forecasts to price short-term loans. Despite a year of AI experimentation, accuracy had not improved—putting capital market performance at risk.
Our team’s forecasting experts delivered a breakthrough by implementing a hybrid AI/statistical model based on a novel and explainable time series feature-based approach that analyzed 40+ revenue patterns per restaurant. This model boosted forecast accuracy by over 10% compared to AI alone.
We pinpointed categories where AI-based forecasting improved accuracy—and flagged segments where forecasting added no value. Combining restaurants with complementary or negatively correlated demand patterns created a more balanced, predictable asset. The result? This approach enhanced portfolio performance, minimized exposure, and delivered a more compelling, forecastable investment story to capital markets.
Forecasting: Art, Science – or both?
Forecasts are never perfect, but some are less wrong than others. Using the latest scientific forecasting research, we help you drive incremental improvement in forecast accuracy, giving you the edge you need to get ahead of the competition. The best models require problem solving with situational knowledge, i.e., the art of forecasting. We work alongside you to build flexible models that reflect the nuances of your company’s position and industry that you know best. Our industry experts, in partnership with our forecasting specialists, fine-tune and adjust variables based on their deep industry knowledge gained through decades of experience. When it comes to data, we carefully consider what’s there and what might be missing from the model, identifying and integrating new data sources that may come to represent key business drivers.
AI isn’t always the answer
When it comes to AI, we know when to use it and when not to. There are situations when simple methods outperform AI, while also maintaining explainability for your business decisions. At other times, AI excels when your data has deep and repeatable patterns. Finally, there are situations where neither approach meets our clients’ expectations, and the data is unforecastable. In these cases, we leverage our expertise to develop a more creative approach or help our clients save costs from overconfidence in truly unforecastable situations.
Our approach
We combine focused proficiency in data analytics with deep industry expertise. But most importantly, we translate the science behind leading-edge forecasting research into practical outcomes to drive real value for our clients through solutions tuned to business importance.
The Forecasting Center of Excellence (ForCE) is led by Matthew Schneider, a former tenured professor of statistics with nearly 40 peer-reviewed publications, founder of a consulting firm, and our subject matter expert at AlixPartners. Our team, which includes multiple experts with Ph.D.'s in relevant fields, has implemented state-of-the-art forecasting solutions with success across several industries, run top forecasting conferences sanctioned by the International Institute of Forecasters, and advanced the science by actively publishing in the top peer-reviewed forecasting journals.
Results you can count on – client stories
Agriscience company
A $15B+ agriscience company missed earnings guidance due to outdated forecasting methods. One business unit faced unexpected commercial headwinds, exposing a major gap between financial plans and actual demand. Inflation, interest rates, and shifting trade policies rendered traditional models ineffective. In response, the CFO launched an initiative to test forecasting models that integrate macroeconomic indicators—aiming to move beyond slow, bottom-up planning and toward a more adaptive, data-driven approach.
Our team evaluated 80+ predictive variables (e.g., market shares, pricing, interest rate, unemployment, FX rates) for use in the model. After identifying product group specific predictive variables to drive accuracy, the team shortlisted a total of 29 variables across all product groups, leading to improved forecast accuracy of 5% from 21%.
Corporate Finance Forecast – Global Media Holding Company
An in-house investment affiliate of an international media company needed help with the forecast quality of their portfolio companies’ P&L statements. Inaccuracies made it difficult for the equity holding company to steer single investments, and the bottom-up planning and forecasting approach drained resources and failed to deliver results.
Our team stepped in with tailored solutions, building a hierarchical forecast tool that predicts the entire set of P&L statements for more than eight portfolio companies. Patterns were learned across levels of the hierarchy to improve accuracy, and forecasts were automatically generated every month to actively track targets and manage them.
/Forecasting/Forecasting_draft_image_djudft)
