Tariffs leave all in their wake at TPM 2025: Key takeaways from the conference

The levy wasn't dry

TPM25, Long Beach - The fallout from shapeshifting U.S. trade policy dominated the annual gathering of the global shipping and logistics industry here on March 2-5. The impact of country-of-origin tariffs and levies on Chinese-built vessels calling at U.S. ports filled panel and hallway conversation.

Charting tariffs’ effect on trade flows and asset utilization topped the agenda at the industry’s traditional contract-setting gathering, overshadowing perennial hot topics such as capturing AI-enabled solutions and the path to sustainability.

Attendees had a broadly negative view on the impact of Section 301 tariffs levied by the U.S. on China-origin cargoes and China-related vessels. A $1-1.5 million fee for Chinese-built ships calling at U.S. ports would force liners to reduce frequency at smaller locations in favor of more feeder services. Chinese yards have produced nearly half of the existing container fleet and account for 70% of those on order.

Some at TPM25 still saw a silver lining, with Singapore and Vietnam viewed as potential beneficiaries if China experiences a decline in containerized trade volumes. Regional operators were vocal about proactively positioning themselves to capture volumes if BCOs (Beneficial Cargo Owner) adjust sourcing strategy and realign their supply chains.

Still, many supply chain professionals remain skeptical about a full-scale production exodus from China. Some manufacturing may relocate to Vietnam, India, Thailand or other ASEAN economies to sidestep tariffs, but supply chains remain deeply intertwined with China. Raw materials, components and contract manufacturing are still predominantly sourced from China, reinforcing its role as the backbone of regional and global manufacturing networks.

Global logistics providers are being proactive in adapting to tariff-driven shifts in trade flows. DHL executives said it has responded by expanding service offerings to sectors outside the tariff net. For example, the heavy concentration of solar panel production in China should continue to generate an estimated 10 million TEUs in annual global shipments, according to DHL.

On the shippers’ side, challenges around shipment planning, route diversions, and revisiting classifications in collaboration with their freight forwarders seem to be top of mind. Some of the freight forwarders we interviewed during the event highlighted the level of effort required to operationalize large-scale tariff changes as opposed to adjusting their platforms to individual HS codes or groups of products, with similar effort required on the customs and regulatory agencies.

New alliances and schedule reliability

Another key topic of discussion this year was global schedule reliability, with particular focus on the newly launched Gemini Cooperation. The Maersk-Hapag-Lloyd alliance has already demonstrated strong reliability in its initial weeks of operation, and while it has yet to consistently reach its ambitious 90% target, early performance signals meaningful progress. At TPM25, professionals voiced confidence in Gemini’s potential to deliver on its promise, noting that its hub-and-spoke model could serve as a blueprint for broader network optimization in the industry. Should the model prove successful, other carriers are expected to rethink their operational strategies to incorporate similar efficiencies, and even in the face of challenges, the professionals we met believe Gemini’s structure positions it well for iterative improvements, reinforcing its role as an important player to watch in the industry in the coming months.

Deploying AI at sea

The application of AI has become more concrete, moving beyond the buzz of recent TPMs, and we’d highlight three interesting use cases for shippers.

Track and trace 

Efficiency is being boosted by AI solutions that help shippers maintain their inbound freight through track and trace with predictive ETA and automated exception management workflows. This allows shippers to automate ETA and delay notifications to internal and external stakeholders. AI agents providing shipping updates can improve customer satisfaction and make service teams more efficient. 

Contract management and freight bill audit and pay 

Ocean freight contracts, rate tables and invoices have long been a problem area for shippers, with a myriad of formats and unexplained charges that don’t match the rate structure. Contract and rate digitalization solutions employing OCR (Optical Character Recognition) and machine learning allow shippers to quickly standardize contracts, amendments and rate sheets. Freight bill audit pay advancements allow invoices to be processed with little or no human intervention. 

The ever-changing trade compliance landscape

Tools that improve visibility to import and export records from multiple countries help companies identify potential risks in their supply chains. They provide critical information to ensure compliance with sourcing restrictions. 

Predictive analysis of materials that could be on restricted lists is a key part of risk assessment as more are subject to import and export restrictions. Microchips deployed in commercial drones that can be repurposed for military use are one obvious problem area. 

The duels in decarbonization 

Dual-fuel vessels account for over 70% of the order backlog for container ships, but four main hurdles remain on the decarbonization voyage.

1. There’s still no clear winner as an alternative fuel source. LNG was the most popular for dual-fuel ships ordered last year, but methanol has previously been a popular choice.
2. The regulatory framework remains scattered. A clear path for alternative fuels could nudge carriers in the same direction and make shippers pay for the higher associated costs. 
3. Mirroring the bunkering infrastructure for fuel oil will be tough. Major ports may be able to support multiple alternative fuel types. Not so smaller locations. Alternative fuels with varying energy densities may require ships to bunker more often and require ports to carry higher volumes than today’s standard.
4. Who will pay?  The economics of containerships are driven by the variety of their customer base. Some industries are more willing and able than others to pay higher costs for lower carbon emissions. “Shippers aren’t even willing to pay the rates we have today, let alone increased rates due to alternative fuel investment and usage,” noted one carrier executive at TPM.

The steer on port congestion

Port congestion and wait times are rising on Intra-Asia lanes as the era of investing in infrastructure ahead of demand draws to a close. Operators and freight forwarders we met at TPM cited higher capital and labor costs as driving the reversal.

China is home to seven of the world's ten largest ports, collectively handling 192 million TEUs annually. Shanghai’s wait times increased by six days over the past year, while Ningbo and Qingdao saw three-day spikes. As operational pressures intensify, ports appear to be leveraging technology and capacity strategies targeting equipment management to maintain their operations from becoming bottlenecks for international trade.

More port-related news hit American shores

BlackRock has secured a landmark acquisition of key port assets at the Panama Canal, purchasing majority stakes in the Balboa and Cristobal terminals from Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings as part of a $22.8 billion deal.

The transaction, which spans 43 ports across 23 countries, is a significantly addition to BlackRock’s infrastructure footprint while reshaping control over critical maritime trade lanes. 

The move comes amid heightened geopolitical scrutiny, with the new U.S. administration touting the deal as part of efforts to curb Chinese influence in strategic infrastructure.

CK Hutchison described the sale as a commercial decision, distancing itself from external political pressures, but discussions at TPM25 seem to reinforce this deal as a mark that positions BlackRock as a growing force in global shipping, with analysts pointing to potential shifts in trade patterns as a result.

Ocean container rates for the 2025/26 season 

The broad sentiment at TPM is for a return to a shipper’s market with rates indicated to be lower in the 2025/26 contract period than the previous year. As a reminder, the 2024/25 period started as a shipper’s market before quickly shifting in the carriers’ favor.

Some shippers are beginning to use indexes such as the SCFI to create long-term, stable contracts. That allows BCOs to focus on other key shipping requirements such as allocation and speed. However, it continues to be a slow, long-term shift.

For more insight on the future of the container shipping industry, read our 2025 Container Shipping Outlook.