Consumer Products Corner - Strong demand meets rising costs as supply chain gains remain under strain

Top-quartile DIO remained largely unchanged across all sectors in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025, with Durables at 55 days (28% below its sector median of 76 days) and Food & Beverage maintaining best-in-class discipline at 29 days — though the 134% gap to the F&B median suggests mid-tier players are still building defensive buffer stock. 

The macro backdrop is running hot: manufacturing PMI accelerated 2% to a 53.4 April–May average (the strongest since mid-2022), while spot trucking rates spiked 21% to $2.70/mile and WTI crude jumped 16% to ~$90/barrel in early June, squeezing logistics and input cost lines simultaneously. 

The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the primary driver behind this cost surge, compounding what would otherwise be a healthy demand-driven expansion cycle. With an interim U.S.–Iran ceasefire now easing oil flows and crude retreating toward $77, the second half could bring margin relief — but only if the peace holds and freight capacity loosens before Q3's retail build-up begins. In such a volatile geopolitical environment, consumer companies that can stay agile will be the ones that protect margins.

On a monthly basis, AlixPartners charts sales, sentiment and supply chains in consumer-facing businesses. Learn more about the Consumer Products Corner newsletter and read previous articles, here.