Christopher Lowe
Head of Capital Advisory, Partner & Managing Director
London
Christopher Lowe
Partner & Managing Director - London
Public markets rebounded rapidly from the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, with bond issuance reaching record levels and loan spreads tightening significantly. However, the mid-market recovery was more subdued: cash-flow deal activity fell 20% from the record second half of 2025, driven largely by lower refinancing volumes, while M&A-related financing remained resilient.
The composition of activity also shifted. Banks regained market share as credit fund activity declined, while asset-based lending continued to grow. This points to a market that remains open, but increasingly discerning about where capital is deployed.
Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty, AI-related disruption and rising base rates remain key considerations. For borrowers, timing will be critical: spreads remain tight, but all-in borrowing costs are likely to rise, while recapitalisations and repricings continue to provide alternatives where exits remain challenging.
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