An ICE-y road to an electric future

Everyone agrees the future is electric, but the medium-term strategic and commercial importance of the internal combustion engine must not be overlooked writes Sean O'Flynn in Automotive World.

It is not news that electrified vehicles are in the ascendancy. By 2030, AlixPartners projects that battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) together will comprise 44% of the overall global light vehicle market, up from only 5% in 2018.

This growth in electrified sales is vital. Major markets such as Europe have committed to strict average CO2 reductions from newly registered vehicles, with penalties for those who fail to meet them. In Europe, starting 2020, a range-wide average CO2 target of 95g/km comes into effect. Automakers who exceed this face fines of €95 per gram of CO2 over target, per car sold. The annual fines for some large brands could run into several billions.

But even an aggressive roll-out of BEVs will not be the complete answer to hitting these targets, which will quickly become even more aggressive. By 2025, a 15% reduction on the 2021 figure must be achieved. By 2030, this grows to a 37.5% reduction. This is an average target figure of less than 60g/km. Electric cars are important—but so too are lower CO2 versions of conventional ICEs.

This article originally appeared in Automotive World