Q2 Transport M&A review: Deal volume contracts 35%; capital concentrates in regulated infrastructure and inflation-linked assets

Transport M&A activity contracted in Q2 2026, with deal volume falling more than 35 percent quarter-on-quarter. Capital concentrated in fewer, larger transactions, with regulated and quasi-regulated infrastructure the most stable sub-sector.

The broader M&A recovery stalled against an uncertain freight market defined by structural overcapacity yet elevated pricing from transient supply shocks – a combination that made it difficult for investors to underwrite to a stable earnings run-rate. This pushed buyers toward stable, inflation-linked assets and away from cyclical exposure. Strategics continued to lead consolidation plays, while financial sponsors showed renewed appetite on the back of high undeployed capital and stabilising interest rates.

The main themes emerging from Q2 2026 transport M&A include:

• A decisive shift toward infrastructure resilience, with ports, terminals, and concessions capturing over 30 percent of deal volume as buyers prioritised regulated, inflation-linked characteristics and long-duration contracts over transient freight-cycle upside
• Continued regional bifurcation – EMEA led deal volume on road-freight and forwarding consolidation, while North American trucking consolidation continued as distressed operators exited. APAC focused on gateway-capacity control as supply chains diversify across South and Southeast Asia.
• Market narrowing at the top end, with the four largest transactions accounting for the majority of disclosed capital
• Accelerating financial-buyer participation, rising to more than 20 percent of disclosed deals
• Logistics and transportation activity declining roughly 40 percent, though small-to-mid bolt-on activity persisted in road freight and forwarding as consolidation of sub-scale truckers continued

Looking ahead, the Q2 2026 Transport M&A Report underscores that near-term recovery will remain supply-shock driven rather than demand-fuelled. Buyers should underwrite normalised mid-cycle EBITDA run-rates rather than capitalise inflated current toplines. The rate-cut pause and elevated oil prices are entrenching a higher-for-longer cost-of-capital mindset, making margin discipline and pricing power the true differentiators in M&A. Geopolitical volatility from the Hormuz and Red Sea disruption to trade-policy uncertainty has shifted from tail risk to core underwriting scenario across valuations. Read the full report below, or download it here.