Tariffs Arrive in a Box on Your Doorstep

Import levies are reshaping online buying patterns and adding to the growing tensions between consumers and retailers over shipping options, says AlixPartners’ latest Home Delivery Survey

NEW YORK (July 1, 2025) – Online shopping is undergoing its most disruptive period in over a decade. Tariffs are prompting consumers to rethink purchase timing, while retailers respond by tightening access to free delivery amid rising costs.

AlixPartners’ latest Home Delivery Survey reveals how shifting global trade policies are driving new tensions between consumers, retailers, and carriers, with the pace of online delivery stalling in most categories for the first time since the survey was started in 2012.

Consumer purchases remain driven by the availability of free and next-day delivery options, according to the survey, but consumers are becoming more fickle, and shippers are pivoting towards pushing harder on alternatives such as in-store pick-up.

Key survey highlights include:

• Tariffs influence 37% of consumers and boost interest in U.S.-made goods
• Online delivery growth slows across most categories, while grocery holds steady
• Gen Z buyers tolerate longer delivery times and favor global value retailers
• Shippers diversify from FedEx, UPS. Amazon is consumers’ preferred pick 

AlixPartners’ survey of 1,100 consumers and retail and transportation executives in late May and early June highlighted the broader weakness in economic sentiment.

Online purchases for home delivery fell across a swathe of sectors, with double-digit percentage point declines from a year ago in ecommerce stalwarts such as electronics, sporting goods and office supplies. Grocery was an outlier — purchases were in line with those of a year ago.

Service expectations remain elevated despite the weak demand environment, with 3.5 days remaining the sweet spot for home delivery, and free shipping continues to drive a majority of buying decisions.

Taking aim at tariffs

Most respondents said their buying behavior had been influenced by tariffs.
•    34% delayed purchases due to uncertainty over prices
•    28% pulled purchases ahead to avoid extra import costs
•    66% will seek domestic options if overseas prices increase

“Elevated consumer awareness of tariffs is clearly flowing through into buying decisions,” said Chris Considine, a Partner in AlixPartners’ Retail practice. “You can see how people are timing their purchases and the conscious effort among a sizeable minority to ‘Buy American’.”

One potential bright spot for shippers is the emergence of demographic changes impacting consumer expectations. Gen Z shoppers are more comfortable than other groups to wait a week or more for delivery or give e-tailers extra time to consolidate their shipments. They are also the most likely to buy from value-focused overseas e-tailers such as Shein and Temu that have been affected by the ending of duty-free status on low-value imports.

Shippers may need the breathing space as almost three-quarters of executives surveyed said that per-package delivery costs have increased over the past year. Most e-commerce executives said cutting last-mile delivery costs was a priority over investment to boosting service levels. 

Retailers are tweaking service offerings, gating access to free delivery, tightening return policies, and placing more emphasis on in-store pick-up and returns. Almost half have increased the minimum purchase requirement or require a membership to qualify for free shipping.

The ecommerce sector’s longstanding reliance on third-party delivery providers has focused attention on contract terms. Half of those surveyed said they had diversified their pool of carriers, and 40% shifted volume over the past year from the two largest players, FedEx and UPS.

“Carriers are feeling the pinch as shoppers reconsider and shippers diversify to lower costs,” said Marc Iampieri, Global Co-Lead of AlixPartners’ Logistics & Transportation practice. “Optimizing your distribution network is the big lever for retailers, and they are pulling it hard, adding more pressure on the carriers.” 

To read the full report, click here.

Contact:
Ed Canaday
[email protected]

Doug Cameron
[email protected]

About AlixPartners
AlixPartners is a results-driven global consulting firm that specializes in helping businesses successfully address their most complex and critical challenges. Our clients include companies, corporate boards, law firms, investment banks, private equity firms, and others. Founded in 1981, AlixPartners is headquartered in New York and has offices in more than 20 cities around the world. For more information, visit www.alixpartners.com.