Back-to-school anxiety: Tariff-driven footwear price hikes are top concern as household debt hits new high

With just weeks before the school year begins, families are making hard choices about their footwear purchases. Tariff-induced sticker shock is real, and it's hitting where it hurts most: the checkout line.

NEW YORK (July 16, 2025) — As summer break winds down, U.S. families are facing a triple threat to their wallets: rising tariffs, deepening household debt, and a volatile economic backdrop that’s reshaping how America shops for back-to-school staples—including footwear.

The 2025 AlixPartners U.S. Consumer Footwear Survey, in partnership with the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA), showed 80% of consumers expect to pay more for children’s shoes this fall, with more than half citing tariffs as the key driver. The survey, which polled over 1,000 U.S. consumers in June, highlights a worrying shift in consumer behavior just as retailers enter one of their most critical sales seasons.

“Families are stuck,” said Bryan Eshelman, Partner & Managing Director at AlixPartners. “They’re trying to spend less, but shoes are getting more expensive. That tension is forcing retailers into a dangerous balancing act—raising prices just enough to protect margins but not so much that they scare customers away.”
 

Sticker shock and shrinking margins lead to trading down
AlixPartners’ survey reveals that half of all consumers expect footwear prices to increase, but that brands and retailers will be absorbing at least a portion of cost increases. What’s more, consumers are trading down in their footwear purchases and seeking quality and versatility in fewer purchases. Faced with a prospective price hike of 25% or more, 21% are “extremely likely” to buy cheaper brands; over half are “likely” or “extremely likely” to trade down. Indeed, 54% of respondents said they were actively switching brands to manage costs, up from just 39% two years ago. And 3 in 10 are delaying purchases, hoping for late-season sales to ease the financial pinch.

 “The debt burden is no longer hypothetical,” Eshelman noted. “It’s shaping how consumers behave in real-time. We’re seeing families make trade-offs not just between brands, but between buying shoes and paying bills.”

Winners, losers, and wild cards
Brands that offer value without compromising on comfort or style—particularly in the athletic and casual categories—are poised to win. Survey respondents showed a strong preference for retailers offering buy-now-pay-later options, loyalty rewards, and real-time price comparison tools.

“Footwear retailers are stuck between a rock and a hard place,” said Matt Priest, President and CEO of the FDRA. “Tariffs raise wholesale costs across the board, but consumers aren’t willing—or able—to absorb those increases. That leaves retailers squeezed on both sides, eroding margins and forcing tough decisions on inventory, pricing, and sourcing.”

Meanwhile, luxury brands and fashion-first retailers may be in for a rude awakening. Among Gen Z and Millennial parents, 73% say they’ll skip trend-driven styles in favor of “durability and price.” Even brand loyalty is under pressure, with only 28% of shoppers saying they’ll stick with their usual brands “no matter what.”
“Every footwear brand and retailer is battling for relevance in a market that’s saturated, price-sensitive,  and deeply impacted by geopolitical risk,” said Priest.

Consumers shopped back-to-school early, spooked by tariffs and inventory gaps
 

Nearly half of respondents planned to finish BTS footwear shopping before July 4. This represents an early kick-off to school shopping, typically thought to peak in July and August, driven by concerns over rising prices. 

That spending pulled forward could in turn cut into holiday spend. Concern over budgets was evident: price showed up as the top driver of a purchase (and the only factor to see an increase in interest over last year) as well as one of the top determining factors for where consumers will shop. Seventy-seven percent of respondents said “absolute lowest prices” was a major factor in their choice of store (online or in person), up from 74% in 2024.

The China question and looming uncertainty
Driving much of this volatility is the uncertain global trade environment, with imports accounting for 99% of U.S. footwear sales. Recent escalations in U.S.-China trade tensions have revived fears of new tariffs—particularly on categories like footwear, which remain heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing. Currently, over 70% of shoes sold in the U.S. are imported from Asia, and more than 40% still come from China alone.

Retailers must adapt—or fall behind
AlixPartners’ Eshelman concludes that adaptability is key: “Retailers must get smarter about promotions, inventory management, and personalization. The days of one-size-fits-all seasonal 
marketing are over. To thrive in this back-to-school season, brands must operate with surgical precision.

“Given the potential shortage of inventory, it will be important to retailers to have accurate and timely inventory visibility to fulfil consumer needs through omnichannel methods—store to store transfer, ship from store, ship from distribution center to customer. Otherwise, they risk disappointing the customer which can have a lasting impact. As retailers think about pricing and promotional strategies, it will be important that they have a view of what their competitors are doing to avoid standing out in a negative way from a pricing perspective.”

About the AlixPartners U.S. Consumer Footwear Survey

Conducted in June 2025, the survey polled more than 1,000 U.S. consumers (ages 15 and above) across regions, age groups, and income levels.  

For more information about the survey, follow this link to our report, “Back-to-School anxiety”. 
 
About AlixPartners
AlixPartners is a results-driven global consulting firm that specializes in helping businesses successfully capitalize on opportunity and address critical challenges. Our clients include companies, corporate boards, law firms, investment banks, private equity firms, and others. Founded in 1981, AlixPartners is headquartered in New York and has offices in more than 25 cities around the world. For more information, visit https://www.alixpartners.com.

About FDRA
FDRA is governed and directed by footwear executives and is the only trade organization focused solely on the footwear industry. Serving the full footwear supply chain, it boosts its members’ bottom lines through innovative products, training, consulting on footwear design and development, sourcing and compliance, trade and customs, advocacy, and consumer and sales trend analysis for shoe retailers around the world. FDRA supports 500 companies and brands worldwide, representing 95% of the total U.S. footwear industry. https://fdra.org/ 

Contact:

Ed Canaday
+1 917 434 5075
[email protected]